Financial

Figure 2: Delivery shortfalls moved with freight and import-cost pressures, showing how scarcity and costs reinforced each other. Related article: Su

Figure 1: Supply-chain pressure surged before core inflation peaked, showing why logistics shocks can become delayed price pressure. Related article: Su

Figure 2: The model shows tightening causes a deeper investment fall than equal easing can reverse. Related articles: Asymmetric Monetary Policy an

Figure 1: Tightening cuts external financing more sharply as firms face more binding constraints. Related article: Asymmetric Monetary Policy and th

As the ECB tightening cycle advanced, combined swap-and-bond exposure became less negative, showing that hedging intensified when rate risk became visible. Related Articles:

EUR/USD moves more clearly with monetary-policy surprises than with direct exchange-rate remarks. Related Articles: Exchange Rate Communication

A global energy shock hits EU GDP harder because domestic demand and external demand weaken at the same time. Related Articles: The Global Energy Sho

The global shock creates a much larger inflation peak because energy costs spread into industry, services, and traded goods. Related Articles: The G

Over-delivery produces much larger short-rate responses, with the gap widest at the shortest maturities. Related Articles: Fed Communication Strat

Germany and Switzerland show how central-bank risk can rise through different asset mixes, with foreign-exchange exposure driving Switzerland’s largest swings. Related Articles:

Balance-sheet risk rose sharply as conventional rate policy reached its limits, driven mainly by larger securities holdings. Related Articles: Fed

Treaty partners exported far more on average, though the raw gap is descriptive rather than a causal estimate. Related Articles: Middle-Power Trade

 Europe’s trade order grew through repeated waves of new and renewed agreements, not through a single grand bargain. Related Articles: Middle-Powe

Uncertainty produces a sharp and persistent investment loss, with the largest decline occurring one year after the shock. Related Articles: Trade Poli

Europe gains access to diverted trade, but the direction and scale of the effect differ sharply between the US and Chinese markets.

Retaliation redirected trade and the shift endured.

Kenya’s lower depreciation relative to many peers shows that reserve size alone does not determine currency stability. Related Articles: Foreign Exch

Lower-income workers suffer the clearest earnings loss two years after a 10% oil-price increase, showing why oil shocks quickly become inequality shocks.

Payroll growth shows that the recovery was constrained not only by demand, but also by labour supply, matching and missing work capacity. Related Articles:

A supply shock can change employment and wages while leaving unemployment too calm to reveal the real bottleneck. Related Articles: The Unemployment Rate